MARKET REPORT

San Juan Islands Real Estate

Quarter 2, 2026 | Countywide First-Half Recap

Executive Summary

The San Juan Islands closed the first half of 2026 with a dollar volume story that outperformed 2025 by a wide margin, and a transaction count story that lagged it. Countywide dollar volume reached $159,961,071 through June 30 — a 30% year-over-year gain — even as unit sales fell 15% to 123 transactions. The gap between the two figures is the whole story of this market: fewer deals, but at meaningfully higher price points.

Average countywide sale price across all property types was $1,300,500 in H1 2026, up sharply from $849,000 in the same period last year. This is not broad appreciation — it is a shift in mix. Fifty-one of the county's 123 H1 transactions closed above $1M, and those luxury sales alone accounted for $120.6M — roughly 75% of the county's total dollar volume. The rolling 12-month countywide median stood at $930,000 as of quarter-end, a 10% year-over-year increase.

Orcas Island is the standout performer. In a market where most islands saw softer transaction counts, Orcas held its unit volume steady versus H1 2025 while dollar volume climbed 67%. Orcas alone accounted for 54% of the entire county's H1 dollar volume — more than San Juan Island despite a smaller population base. San Juan Island contributed 34.5% of countywide volume; Lopez, Shaw, and the outer islands together made up the remaining 11%.

Inventory rebuilt sharply through spring and into summer. Countywide inventory reached 356 (308 active, 48 pending) as of July 2 — up 109% from the January 4 low, and comparable to the same period in 2025. The buyer's market that defined the first half is expected to continue through the balance of 2026, with mortgage rate volatility and continued equity market strength keeping many prospective buyers on the sidelines.

H1 2026 Snapshot — San Juan County

Metric (H1 YTD)

H1 2026

H1 2025

Change

Dollar Volume

$159,961,071

~$123,047,000

+30%

Number of Transactions

123

145

-15%

Average Sale Price (all types)

$1,300,500

$849,000

+53%

12-Month Median Home Price

$930,000

~$845,000

+10%

H1 2025 dollar volume and median figures are inferred from the reported year-over-year percentage changes.

H1 2026 by Island

The county's four main islands — San Juan, Orcas, Lopez, and Shaw — plus the outer islands (Decatur, Center, and others) had markedly different halves. Orcas led on nearly every measure; San Juan Island contributed the most transactions but a lower average price; Lopez, Shaw, and the outer islands together contributed a modest share of both.

Island

Dollar Volume

Transactions

Avg Price

% of County

San Juan Island

$55,263,719

53

$1,042,700

34.5%

Orcas Island

$86,715,658

50

$1,734,313

54.2%

Lopez, Shaw & Outer

$17,981,694

20

$899,085

11.2%

San Juan County (Total)

$159,961,071

123

$1,300,500

100%

Figures for 'Lopez, Shaw & Outer' are derived as the residual of countywide totals less San Juan Island and Orcas Island. Individual island breakouts within that segment are not published in the source data.

Market Conditions

The Volume-vs-Units Divergence

The single most important pattern in H1 2026 is the split between dollar volume (up 30%) and transaction count (down 15%). Historically these two metrics move together — when the market is strong, both rise; when it softens, both fall. In H1 2026 they diverged sharply because the mix moved upmarket. Buyers active in the market this year skewed heavily toward the $1M-plus tier, while activity in the middle of the market thinned. Nineteen more transactions closed under $1M in H1 2025 than in H1 2026, while the number of $1M+ sales held roughly steady but at higher price points.

Orcas Island's Outsized Contribution

Orcas is contributing more to the county picture than in years past. Its H1 dollar volume of $86.7M was more than San Juan Island's ($55.3M) despite Orcas having a smaller population and lower transaction count only by a hair (50 vs 53). One large first-quarter transaction on Orcas accounts for part of the swing, but the second quarter carried the momentum forward. On a per-transaction basis, the average Orcas sale in H1 2026 was $1.73M — nearly $700K higher than the average San Juan Island sale.

Pricing & Median Trends

The countywide 12-month rolling median of $930,000 is up 10% from the same window a year ago — a real gain that reflects both mix and mild underlying strengthening. Median trends by island diverge: San Juan Island's 12-month median is flat at $795,000, while Orcas and the surrounding markets are pulling the county figure higher. Median is a lagging indicator in a market this size, and the underlying stability suggests values are holding even as activity clears more slowly.

Price Tier Breakdown

The concentration of dollar volume at the top of the market is stark:

Price Tier

Sales (H1)

Total Volume

% of Volume

Under $1M

72

$39,337,967

24.6%

Over $1M

51

$120,623,104

75.4%

Seventy-two sub-$1M transactions produced roughly a quarter of total dollar volume. Fifty-one over-$1M transactions produced three-quarters of it. This is a market where the top of the pyramid is doing most of the work.

Buyer Negotiation Environment

For San Juan Island specifically, the trailing 12-month data shows homes closing at an average 6.1% below list price across 118 sales — with the $600K–$1M tier holding closest to list at 2.98% off and 90-day average DOM, and the over-$2M tier showing the deepest negotiation at 6.43% off list. Land sales countywide continue to see wider discounts (8.25% average off list, 136 days on market on San Juan Island) driven by high construction costs, permitting delays, and elevated land loan rates. These patterns hold broadly across Lopez and Orcas as well, though tier-level breakdowns vary by island.

Inventory & Pending Sales

Indicator (as of July 2, 2026)

San Juan Island

San Juan County

Total Inventory (Active + Pending)

144

356

Active Listings

125

308

Pending Transactions

19

48

Inventory Change Since Jan 4, 2026

+142%

+109%

12-Month Median Home Price

$795,000

$930,000

Median Price YoY Change

Unchanged

+10%

Both San Juan Island and countywide inventory levels are very close to where they stood at the same point in 2025. The doubling and tripling versus January reflects the normal spring buildup rather than an unusual glut — but it does mean buyers are entering H2 with genuine selection.

Macro Context

• Mortgage rates hit a cycle low of 5.98% at the end of February 2026 — the lowest reading since September 2022 — before drifting back to approximately 6.5% by June amid global economic volatility.
• Statewide NWMLS keybox activity was down 9% month-over-month in June 2026 and down 3.4% versus June 2025, indicating softer showing traffic across Washington.
• Washington State's median home sale price was unchanged from May to June 2026 — the state has enough volume to measure month-to-month change, unlike the islands.
• Equity market strength is competing with real estate for buyer capital. Simonson's July summary notes an increase in 1031 exchange activity, suggesting some buyer capital is rotating within real estate rather than entering from other asset classes.

Outlook

The typical mid-year pattern that lets local observers predict the year-end trajectory has not formed cleanly in 2026. Merri Ann Simonson's own July summary makes this point directly: this is an unusual market where the second-half pattern is genuinely hard to call. The variables at work — mortgage rate volatility, global economic conditions, and buyers who remain on the fence while equity markets rise — do not point in one direction.

For buyers, the setup heading into H2 is favorable at nearly every price point: substantial inventory selection, minimal competition, and real negotiation authority. The exception is the $600K–$1M tier on San Juan Island (and likely similar tiers on Orcas and Lopez), where properly-priced properties are still moving with limited discount.

For sellers, the message is clear across the county: pricing accuracy and property presentation matter more in this market than in a hot one. The 6% average discount to list is a floor that widens meaningfully at the top of the market — sellers of $2M+ properties should expect deeper negotiation and longer marketing periods than the countywide average implies. Well-presented properties priced to current comps continue to close within a reasonable timeframe, especially in the sub-$1M segment.

Sources & Methodology

Primary source: Merri Ann Simonson's San Juan County Real Estate Market Summary published July 16, 2026 via San Juan Islander and San Juan Islands Lifestyle, drawing from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) and San Juan County Assessor records. Figures represent all brokerages operating in San Juan County, not any single firm. YTD figures cover January 1 – June 30, 2026. The 12-month rolling median covers July 1, 2025 – June 30, 2026. Inventory snapshots are as of July 2, 2026. Lopez, Shaw, and outer island figures are calculated as residuals from published countywide, San Juan Island, and Orcas Island totals.

This report aggregates publicly reported market data and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Individual property values may vary materially from market-wide medians and averages. Confirm any specific figures with a licensed local broker before transacting.