MARKET REPORT

San Juan Island Real Estate

Quarter 1, 2026

Executive Summary

San Juan Island's first quarter of 2026 closed with softer numbers than Q1 2025: dollar volume of $16,084,000 across 19 transactions, representing an 11.5% decline in volume and a 17.4% decline in unit sales year-over-year. The 12-month rolling median home price ending March 31, 2026 was $752,250 — a 3% decrease from the prior year.

The pullback was driven by a mix of factors that are well understood locally: low winter inventory limiting buyer selection, elevated mortgage rates keeping some buyers on the sidelines, weather affecting travel for showings, and national economic volatility prompting buyers to pause. Q1 results in this market are historically volatile and rarely set the tone for the full year.

Looking forward, the leading indicators are constructive. Inventory rebuilt sharply through March, buyer leads from major portals (Zillow, REALTOR.com, Homes.com) increased, and statewide showing activity per Showing Time rose 19% month-over-month in March, with lockbox accesses up 24.5%. The spring market opens with notably more selection than at any point in the prior six months.

Q1 2026 Snapshot — San Juan Island

Metric

Q1 2026

Q1 2025

Change

Dollar Volume

$16,084,000

$18,173,000

-11.5%

Number of Transactions

19

23

-17.4%

12-Month Median Home Price

$752,250

$775,500

-3.0%

Note: Q1 2025 comparison figures are derived from the published year-over-year percentage changes.

Market Conditions

Sales Volume & Transactions

Nineteen transactions closed on San Juan Island in Q1 2026, totaling roughly $16.1 million in dollar volume. Both figures came in below the same period in 2025, continuing a pattern of cautious buyer behavior that took hold in late 2025. The decline was concentrated in the lower-velocity winter months; March showed clear acceleration in showing activity that has not yet translated into closed transactions but typically does so on a 30–60 day lag.

Pricing

The 12-month median sale price for San Juan Island stood at $752,250 as of March 31, 2026, down 3% year-over-year. Median price has been remarkably stable through this cycle — small moves in either direction despite meaningful swings in transaction count — which suggests value is holding even as the market clears more slowly. Sellers across San Juan County are, on average, accepting offers approximately 6% below list price over the trailing 12 months.

Inventory & Pending Sales

Inventory rebuilt substantially through the late winter and into early spring. As of April 1, 2026, San Juan Island had 93 active listings and San Juan County had 216 — increases of 22% and 23% respectively versus the February 28 snapshot. Active pendings stood at 13 on San Juan Island and 24 county-wide, with the trend rising since January. Many of the new spring listings are properties that did not appear on the market in 2025.

Inventory & Activity — Spring 2026 Opening Position

Indicator (as of April 1, 2026)

San Juan Island

San Juan County

Active Inventory

93

216

Inventory Increase vs. Feb 28, 2026

+22%

+23%

Pending Transactions

13

24

12-Month Median Home Price

$752,250

$897,500

Median Price YoY Change

-3.0%

+1.1%

Positive Indicators Heading Into Q2

• Buyer leads from Zillow, REALTOR.com, Homes.com, and the Coldwell Banker network increased through Q1.
• Statewide Showing Time activity rose approximately 19% from February to March 2026.
• Lockbox accesses by agents — a direct proxy for in-person showings — rose approximately 24.5% month-over-month in March.
• New listings continue to come online, including properties that were not marketed during 2025.
• County-level median price remained stable to slightly positive (+1.1% YoY), suggesting underlying values are firm.

Outlook

The expected pattern for 2026 is a market that continues to favor buyers through the first half of the year, with the potential for rebalancing in the second half as inventory and showing activity convert into closed transactions. Interest rates remain the single most important external variable; meaningful improvement on the rate side would likely pull sidelined buyers back quickly given the inventory now available.

For sellers, the implication is straightforward: pricing accuracy and presentation matter more in a slower market than in a hot one. The 6% average list-to-sale spread reflects buyers' willingness to negotiate, not weakness in underlying values. Well-prepared properties priced to current comps are still moving.

For buyers, Q2 2026 opens with the best selection in roughly a year and a negotiating posture that has not been available in recent cycles. The combination of rebuilt inventory and seller flexibility creates a meaningfully different opportunity set than buyers faced 12–18 months ago.

Sources & Methodology

Figures in this report are sourced from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) via Coldwell Banker San Juan Islands and the Simonson & Zambrovitz team's quarterly market summary, covering all brokerages operating on San Juan Island. Median price is calculated on a trailing 12-month basis ending March 31, 2026; quarterly volume and transaction counts cover January 1 – March 31, 2026.

This report aggregates publicly reported market data and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice. Individual property values may vary materially from market-wide medians. Confirm any specific figures with a licensed local broker before transacting.